November 01, 2008

NEW YORK: Never mind the financial crisis: with just days before the American presidential election, investors on Wall Street are betting big on a win for Democrat Barack Obama. But they wouldn't be unfavorable to an upset by Republican John McCain. "Given Obama's advance in the poll, it's pretty clear who's going to be president," said Owen Fitzpatrick of Deutsche Bank. Most people expect that a Democratic victory is incorporated into the market's dynamics already, according to Mace Blicksilver, director of Marblehead Asset Management. On Intrade.com, a trading exchange website where members can speculate on each candidate's chances, Obama is the clear favorite, holding a winning margin of 84.5 percent. Intrade finds Republican John McCain with a 16.6 percent margin, down from over 50 percent in September. For their part, economists at IHS Global Insight calculate the Democratic candidate has a 53.1 percent chance of victory compared to McCain's 46.9 percent, an outcome they deem "not surprising" due to the ongoing economic crisis.