October 14, 2009

If the nation's major banks report big third-quarter profits, don't take the numbers at face value.Although trading gains could drive strong earnings for banks like JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., mounting loan losses and the prospect of tougher capital requirements and higher deposit insurance fees are expected to eat into the banks' profits well into 2010 and beyond.

Moreover, after all the reports are in, investors might be seeing a fragmented earnings picture, with profits at large companies obscuring festering problems at banks of all sizes, and in the broader economy as well. Disappointing earnings could dim hopes for a meaningful economic recovery and slow the stock rally that began in March and propelled the Dow within sight of the 10,000 level.